Following Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s pardon a few hours ago, Polymarket bettors have now projected a 15% probability that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried would be pardoned this year.
SBF’s odds increased from 5.6% to 15% in 12 hours because of Polymarket odds for “Who will Trump pardon in 2025.” Over $6.5 million was wagered in that market, including $302,090 for the convicted cryptocurrency scammer.
SBF to get a pardon?
Before dropping back to 15.5%, another market indicator, indicating whether SBF will be “released from custody in 2025,” increased from 4.3% to 19.1%.
Even though SBF has appealed to have his 25-year sentence reduced, it is doubtful that anything substantial will happen before the year is over, therefore, his only realistic chance of being released before January is probably a pardon from Trump.
Naturally, though, CZ’s amnesty has spurred discussion over whether SBF should receive the same treatment, with many arguing that it shouldn’t.
Industry reacts
Many compared the seriousness of their offences, pointing out that SBF was found guilty of fraud and conspiracy to conduct money laundering for stealing several billion dollars’ worth of client cash, while CZ broke US anti-money laundering rules by permitting illegal monies to flow via Binance.
Last year, SBF received a 25-year jail term, while CZ received a four-month imprisonment. Considering that SBF was a “Democratic mega-donor before FTX abruptly collapsed in November 2022,” cryptocurrency attorney Jake Chervinsky stated that he would be “truly shocked” if the Trump administration pardoned SBF.
“His name is half punch line, half curse word in DC. Not a single serious person wants this.”
CZ’s offence was far less serious than that of SBF’s or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon, according to Sasha Hodder, head of the crypto legal company Hodder Legal.
“Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance operated as a real exchange. Withdrawals always worked. His ‘crime’ was compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense.”
CZ’s pardon
Regarding the pardon, Trump said that he was “persecuted by the Biden administration” and that CZ’s actions were “not even a crime.” One of the main supporters of the Trump family’s cryptocurrency platform, World Liberty Financial, is CZ.
This was not the first time Trump has pardoned someone important from the crypto industry. However, the crime in question when we talk about SBF’s pardon is quite serious, as it has affected millions of users and billions of dollars.
Therefore, even though the predictions have increased 15% the chances of him getting a pardon are still less, as industry people themselves think it is not justified.