Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says that Bitcoin’s four year cycle has likely come to an end. According to him, the conventional 4-year cycle for Bitcoin was over.
He adds that although 2025 is anticipated to be a prosperous year, 2026 can diverge from other cycles. Hougan adds that the halving event is not the primary driver of the Bitcoin market; rather, macroeconomic variables are.
Hougan Explains Affect of Bitcoin Halving on Prices
Hougan emphasized in a letter to customers that Bitcoin has historically had a cycle of three years of strong trading followed by a decline. In the middle of 2022, he had already recognized this trend and forecasted a market recovery, which came to pass in 2023 and 2024.
Hougan says that legislative changes in Washington may prolong the present bull market beyond 2026 and beyond, casting doubt on the durability of Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical four-year cycle.
He says that 2025 is predicted to be another successful year based on historical patterns. The forecast for 2026, though, might be different from earlier cycles.
According to Hougan, the main causes of the four-year cycle are economic considerations rather than Bitcoin’s halving events. A major trigger usually starts a market upswing by drawing in new investors and generating momentum.
As seen by previous incidents like the 2014 collapse of Mt. Gox and the 2018 US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) crackdown on initial coin offerings, excessive speculation eventually results in corrections.
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What Will Drive Bitcoin Prices Higher?
Bitcoin’s growth in the upcoming year may be influenced by a number of things. Confidence will probably rise as institutional use increases and more businesses and hedge funds participate.
Governments may create a safer environment for consumers and investors by making regulations more clear. Furthermore, the limited supply of Bitcoin and its increasing popularity as a store of value in the face of inflation worries may increase demand and raise its price in 2025.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: What to Expect in Near Term?
According to market indicators, Bitcoin price will likely have increased by 28.82% to $131,271.
This prediction is supported by the market expectation of changing regulatory stance and a rise in investor optimism. The present sentiment for Bitcoin is bullish, and the Fear & Greed Index is currently at 68 (Greed).
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has had 17 out of 30 (57%) green days and 4.06% price volatility. With 26 technical analysis indicators indicating optimistic signals and two indicating bearish signals, the overall sentiment for the price prognosis of Bitcoin is bullish.
If the optimism plan works out, in the coming month, Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA is expected to climb, reaching $85,225 by March 3, 2025.
One well-liked indicator for determining if a cryptocurrency is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum wave. With the RSI rating at 52.67 right now, the Bitcoin market is in a neutral state.
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