Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin will soon retest the $70,000 to $75,000 price range, attributing this potential surge to global macroeconomic conditions.
In a recent article, Hayes pointed to ongoing money printing by major financial institutions, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, Treasury, China, and Japan, as a key driver of Bitcoin’s value appreciation.
Hayes also weighed in on the idea of a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), a concept that suggests the government should accumulate Bitcoin as part of its national reserves.
Hayes dismissed this proposal as fundamentally flawed, arguing that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it ill-suited for government ownership.
He also questioned whether the U.S. government would derive any real utility from holding Bitcoin, given that national reserves are typically influenced by political considerations rather than purely financial ones.
Political and Economic Risks of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Hayes further warned that a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve could become a political tool rather than an economic asset.
He speculated that if a leader like former President Donald Trump initiated a large-scale Bitcoin purchase, it would drive up Bitcoin’s price temporarily.
However, once the government halted its accumulation, prices would likely stabilize or even decline, limiting any long-term benefits.
He also raised concerns that if the U.S. were to officially accumulate Bitcoin, it could set a precedent for government involvement in other cryptocurrencies, leading to potential political weaponization.
Given the volatility of U.S. politics, Hayes argued that a BSR would be highly impractical, as shifting administrations could result in inconsistent policies regarding Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Concerns Over U.S. Crypto Regulation and Institutional Control
Beyond the BSR debate, Hayes criticized the current trajectory of U.S. cryptocurrency regulations, suggesting that they will likely benefit large institutional players like Coinbase and BlackRock at the expense of decentralized projects.
He emphasized that truly decentralized technology developers lack the financial resources to influence regulatory decisions through lobbying efforts, making them vulnerable to an industry increasingly dominated by corporate giants.
Hayes warned that these centralized institutions prioritize shareholder value and are incentivized to establish monopolistic structures, ultimately restricting competition and innovation within the crypto sector.
Meanwhile, the push for regulation continues at the state level, with 22 U.S. states introducing legislation aimed at Bitcoin, mining, and digital assets.
Leading states such as Wyoming and Arizona are even exploring ways to integrate Bitcoin into their state treasuries, demonstrating a fragmented approach to crypto adoption across different regions.
Macroeconomic Factors and Bitcoin’s Market Performance
Despite concerns about U.S. regulation, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, reiterating that macroeconomic conditions will continue to drive Bitcoin’s growth.
He pointed to increasing liquidity injections from global financial institutions and the potential for regulatory developments that could permit permissionless crypto innovation as key catalysts for a price surge.
As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $98,330.97, with a 24-hour trading volume of $45.4 billion.
While Bitcoin has seen a modest 0.50% price increase in the past day, it remains down 6.57% over the past week.
With a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, its market capitalization currently stands at $1.94 trillion.
Hayes concluded by emphasizing that, while institutional players may shape the regulatory landscape, true decentralization remains the foundation of Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.