The possibility of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval in the U.S. has gained significant traction, with online betting platform Polymarket assigning an 82% chance of approval by 2025.
This surge in confidence follows the victory of former U.S. President Donald Trump and anticipated regulatory shifts within the SEC. If approved, XRP would become the third cryptocurrency to receive an ETF in the U.S., following Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Growing Optimism Around XRP ETF Approval
For the entire month of January, Polymarket users consistently predicted a 60% or higher probability of the SEC approving a spot XRP ETF in 2025. Even more notably, the platform estimates a 52% likelihood that approval could come as soon as July 31, 2025.
This optimism stems from anticipated regulatory changes under the new SEC leadership, which is expected to be more crypto-friendly than the previous administration.
Under the Biden administration and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, applications for cryptocurrency ETFs, especially those tied to altcoins like XRP, were largely overlooked.
However, the changing regulatory landscape under new leadership, including the expected appointment of Mark Udeya, signals a shift in stance. This has fueled an increase in ETF filings, including one from asset management giant Grayscale.
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Grayscale and Others Push for XRP ETF Approval
Grayscale, one of the largest crypto asset managers, has taken a major step toward launching an XRP ETF. Just yesterday, the firm filed with the SEC to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF on the NYSE.
Grayscale previously managed to convert its Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts into ETFs, and now it aims to do the same for XRP.
Currently, Grayscale operates its XRP Trust as a Delaware statutory trust, managing over $16 million in XRP. If approved, the proposed XRP ETF would primarily hold the digital asset while tracking its price performance, minus operational fees.
This would provide investors with direct exposure to XRP’s market movements through a regulated investment vehicle.
Other major asset management firms, including CoinShares and Bitwise, have also filed S-1 forms with the SEC to launch XRP ETFs. However, the regulatory agency has yet to decide on their applications.
Altcoin ETFs: A New Era for Crypto Investments?
The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in early 2024 marked a turning point for institutional investment in cryptocurrency. With the SEC now showing greater flexibility toward crypto investment products, a wave of new ETFs—featuring XRP, Litecoin, and Solana—could come soon.
If approved, these ETFs would further diversify the digital asset market and attract more institutional investors, increasing liquidity and stability for altcoins.
The move would also solidify cryptocurrency’s position in mainstream financial markets, making it more accessible to traditional investors who prefer regulated investment options over direct crypto purchases.
XRP’s Price Action
Amid this rising speculation, XRP is currently trading at $3.09, marking a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $178.38 billion, reflecting the continued volatility of the crypto market.
As the regulatory environment shifts and institutions ramp up their ETF applications, all eyes remain on the SEC’s decision-making process.
If Polymarket’s odds prove accurate, XRP could soon become the next major cryptocurrency to receive ETF approval, further legitimizing its role in the digital asset ecosystem.